Either one of two points of divergence would do the trick. The first one is that in 1806, the Dutch defeat the British near Cape Town, and the second one is that in 1814, the British hand the Cape back to the Dutch (except the strategically-important Simon's Town - not far from Cape Town). I think the second one is much more likely, given that in 1806 (and I'm sure in 1795 as well), the Dutch forces were weak and not numerous compared to the British. Either way, the Cape Colony is kept under Dutch control as a result.
The Cape Colony keeps on expanding slowly, and undergoes numerous wars with the native tribes like the Xhosa. At the same time, the Cape Colony attracts migrants first mainly from the Netherlands, and then also from Germany, Scandinavia, and elsewhere. Meanwhile, the
Trekboers would start making their migrations on a small scale for the time being, given their distrust towards authority. These would ultimately bring them to the Orange Free State and the Transvaal. This would be sort of like the Wild West in America.
In terms of territorial organization, it seems more likely that the Cape Colony eventually gets dominion-like status from the Netherlands (cf. Canada or Australia). In that case, the Trekboer areas in the OFS and Transvaal just might split off from the Cape Colony in rebellion. During all this time, the British establish a colony in Natal (and what we know as Durban is known here as Port Natal), along with Simon's Town.
When diamonds are discovered in and around Kimberley, the Cape Colony and any of the possible Boer republics claim the diamond areas, which ultimately are awarded to the Cape Colony. The Witwatersrand gold goes to the Transvaal (or to the Cape Colony, depending on the scenario). These discoveries are made 20-30 years later than OTL because of the
delay in Trekker migrations. Both of these discoveries attract many migrants from the Netherlands and elsewhere.
The Portuguese, meanwhile, claim the area between present-day Angola and Mozambique - and hence colonize our world's Rhodesia and probably also Nyasaland, while the Germans colonize Namibia until World War I as in our world.
If the Cape Colony itself was awarded a dominion-like status, and the Boer republics split off, I see all these eventually federating into one country - and Natal would totally be its own country. Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland would remain their own countries.
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